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Gold is expected to continue its rally in 2025, with prices currently around USD 2,650/oz, despite a recent decline from an all-time high. Central banks are projected to purchase 900 metric tons of gold next year, driven by diversification efforts and geopolitical uncertainties, while lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar will further support demand. The forecast anticipates gold reaching USD 2,900/oz by the end of 2025, with a recommended portfolio allocation of 5% for diversification.
Gold is expected to continue its rally in 2025, with prices currently around USD 2,650/oz, despite a recent decline from an all-time high. Central banks are projected to purchase 900 metric tons of gold next year, driven by diversification efforts and geopolitical uncertainties, while lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar will further support demand. The forecast anticipates gold reaching USD 2,900/oz by the end of 2025, with a recommended portfolio allocation of 5% for diversification.
The ifo Business Climate Index in Germany dropped from 85.6 to 84.7 in December, indicating a bleak outlook for 2025 as both the manufacturing and service sectors express declining confidence. The export-dependent economy faces challenges from structural changes in the automotive industry, job cuts, and demographic shifts, compounded by the energy crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine. With these ongoing issues, a swift recovery appears unlikely.
The stock market currently presents a complex contradiction, raising questions about its trajectory into 2025. Investors are advised to stay informed about key developments that could impact market dynamics in the near future.
Gold prices remain above $2,600 as investors anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with key insights expected from Chairman Jerome Powell during the FOMC press conference. Market focus is also on upcoming US economic data, including retail sales and GDP growth, which could influence future price movements. The potential for gold to reach $2,700 hinges on the Fed's decisions and projections, with support seen at $2,536 and $2,500.
IG
The S&P 500 is poised for a strong 2024, having risen over 27% this year, driven by high-growth tech stocks and a favorable interest rate environment. However, history shows mixed outcomes after two consecutive years of over 20% gains, with potential risks including geopolitical tensions and economic downturns. Analysts remain divided on whether the index will achieve another double-digit gain in 2025, despite positive economic indicators.
Wall Street is gearing up for a potential year-end rally, with the S&P 500 expected to reach 6200 points, driven by favorable seasonality and signs of an oversold market. Key factors influencing market sentiment this week include the Fed's projections and PCE inflation figures, which could impact future rate cuts. While the outlook is bullish for the end of the year, the market may face pressure in early January following strong gains from the previous year.
IG
Wall Street is experiencing a widening divergence between growth and value stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record high while the Dow Jones faces its eighth consecutive loss. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, market participants are cautious, anticipating a potential 'hawkish cut' that could influence future rate adjustments amid ongoing inflation concerns.Sector performance indicates a strong preference for growth stocks, highlighted by significant gains in tech giants like Alphabet, Tesla, and Broadcom, while the S&P 500 remains in a near-term range. The ratio of value to growth stocks is at its lowest since January 2022, reflecting this trend.
IG
The S&P 500 is poised for a potential year-end rally, targeting 6200 points, driven by favorable seasonality and signs of an oversold market. Key factors this week include the Fed's projections and PCE inflation data, which could influence rate cut expectations and market sentiment. However, the beginning of next year may face pressure following strong gains in 2023.
The S&P BSE Sensex plummeted nearly 1,000 points, hitting an intra-day low of 80,941.61, amid investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. Key factors included a widening trade deficit of $37.8 billion and poor performance from heavyweight stocks like Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. Despite the overall decline, midcap and smallcap stocks showed slightly better resilience, with only minor losses.

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